Ledger / Prediction #174 · narrative · 6H

Will "grieving" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 2061 launches in the last hour referenced "grieving" (22 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

Made2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -2.1947968024122715,
      "diversity": -0.36122448979591837
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13592400796797954
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "grieving",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.00267379679144385,
    "share60": 0.024005819592628517,
    "total15": 560,
    "total60": 2061,
    "momentum": 0.11138119159509532,
    "diversity": 0.4489795918367347,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 359,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996569444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999428240740741
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13592400796797954
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.018

Log loss0.146

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00013394950103810864,
  "shareRatio": 0.03202734551515692,
  "totalAfter": 14931,
  "shareBefore": 0.005175327418673426,
  "totalBefore": 9468,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 14% that "grieving" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.01% (-97%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "grieving" (6H). momentum contributed -2.19 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3a82657e220d483d0025e20b4cf2abe585f1a8d0eb80d98d487bb02c9e2345cb

Previous hashe18ef855e9b57de588f6a79b8a9f478cda64979578fd35e263bfc2c54cca8d40