Ledger / Prediction #1737 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
43 of 2142 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (32 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.82×.
Made2026-10-11 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3227643304889193,
"momentum": 0.6005414846231459,
"diversity": -0.006976744186046524
},
"rawProbability": 0.649383193356162
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.03700657894736842,
"share60": 0.020298646756882876,
"total15": 607,
"total60": 2142,
"momentum": 1.8231057168784026,
"diversity": 0.7441860465116279,
"launches15": 22,
"launches60": 43,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 246,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949347222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949347222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.649383193356162
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 19:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.422
Log loss1.048
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.003861003861003861,
"shareRatio": 0.20162753100293765,
"totalAfter": 2331,
"shareBefore": 0.019981412639405203,
"totalBefore": 2152,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 9,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 43
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 65% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.00% → 0.39% (-81%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.60 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
22962a49ce2c655eea24f84ad1936f44f7a71d21abc2050fc3e6f4ad68dc272bPrevious hash
a22242661eda523d0ad813c89622f5edc3991d4784ef5b73ea4fed3f5493149a