Will "doomed" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "doomed" (3 distinct creators, rank #262). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.26978572980671556,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43656686087083196
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doomed",
    "rank60": 262,
    "share15": 0.003260869565217391,
    "share60": 0.002489814395654142,
    "total15": 459,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 1.309683794466403,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979922222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999163425925925
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43656686087083196
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0025692864965040857,
  "shareRatio": 1.2972559279796356,
  "totalAfter": 47484,
  "shareBefore": 0.0019774392162150017,
  "totalBefore": 44502,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 122,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 88
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity