Will "chad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "chad" (19 distinct creators, rank #17). Last 15m momentum 0.50×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": -0.6897137563986762,
      "diversity": -0.20909090909090902
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3525447512781147
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chad",
    "rank60": 17,
    "share15": 0.007608695652173913,
    "share60": 0.015165233137166138,
    "total15": 459,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 0.5017196625567814,
    "diversity": 0.5757575757575758,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979922222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999163425925925
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3525447512781147
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003790750568612585,
  "shareRatio": 0.35026712316382735,
  "totalAfter": 47484,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011010741090288077,
  "totalBefore": 44502,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity