Will "smiling" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

37 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "smiling" (26 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3002220000315186,
      "momentum": -2.748419399599334,
      "diversity": -0.056756756756756704
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17472878901748287
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "smiling",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.0010869565217391304,
    "share60": 0.016976007243096423,
    "total15": 459,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 0.06402898550724638,
    "diversity": 0.7027027027027027,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 37,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979922222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999163425925925
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17472878901748287
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004422542330048016,
  "shareRatio": 0.3990064606123664,
  "totalAfter": 47484,
  "shareBefore": 0.001123545009213069,
  "totalBefore": 44502,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 21,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity