Will "onboarder" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "onboarder" (15 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 1.72×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": 0.5419153892510116,
      "diversity": -0.44999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49567064178841524
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "onboarder",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.03152173913043478,
    "share60": 0.01833408782254414,
    "total15": 459,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 1.7192968330649487,
    "diversity": 0.375,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979922222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996653703703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49567064178841524
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00007308338814587444,
  "shareRatio": 0.029133781545357108,
  "totalAfter": 13683,
  "shareBefore": 0.0037164359379355198,
  "totalBefore": 10763,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity