GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1724 · narrative · 1H

Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (8 distinct creators, rank #141). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-11 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 17:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.2641446301192396,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.232607827552023
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "justice",
    "rank60": 141,
    "share15": 0.0010869565217391304,
    "share60": 0.003847894975101856,
    "total15": 459,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 0.28248081841432227,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979922222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979922222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.232607827552023
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.589
Log loss1.458
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03588413316039775,
  "shareRatio": 9.411739285169556,
  "totalAfter": 2313,
  "shareBefore": 0.0036101083032490976,
  "totalBefore": 2216,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 83,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "justice" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 3.59% (+894%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "justice" (1H). momentum contributed -1.26 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 77% and wrong on "justice". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0d927371d3dcc6bf6d4033d7ec8dd35faf4416512e653df08abe4e2b890a705a
Previous hashcbb462216aa3e82f37710cad3618a2d318f5ef01a8a67d9c1991b2e8e142534a