Ledger / Prediction #1722 · narrative · 1H
Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
64 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (6 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.35×.
Made2026-10-11 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 17:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3824167756388357,
"momentum": 0.852391035966837,
"diversity": -0.7875
},
"rawProbability": 0.5367605029389808
},
"features": {
"term": "money",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.06847826086956521,
"share60": 0.029198732458125848,
"total15": 459,
"total60": 2208,
"momentum": 2.3452477249747217,
"diversity": 0.09375,
"launches15": 31,
"launches60": 64,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 265,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9979922222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979922222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5367605029389808
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.215
Log loss0.622
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03718115002161695,
"shareRatio": 1.2848686458563647,
"totalAfter": 2313,
"shareBefore": 0.02888086642599278,
"totalBefore": 2216,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 86,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 64
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.89% → 3.72% (+29%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "money" (1H). momentum contributed +0.85 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
fe1992de63ef30fa209f1d98da98ab6cb8dc381e8e940fc5739e2516b30c3189Previous hash
29576855bd813fe0db1ea87348a46f86081317fba9b461c3d36a100bac5faa79