Will "safe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2189 launches in the last hour referenced "safe" (4 distinct creators, rank #145). Last 15m momentum 1.15×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.13637954129473986,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4142168703267557
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "safe",
    "rank60": 145,
    "share15": 0.004448398576512456,
    "share60": 0.0038812785388127853,
    "total15": 561,
    "total60": 2189,
    "momentum": 1.1461168097132093,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 272,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924144444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996839351851852
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4142168703267557
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014827367083245075,
  "shareRatio": 1.1004728026858848,
  "totalAfter": 47210,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013457742687959806,
  "totalBefore": 44584,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 70,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity