Will "run" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2189 launches in the last hour referenced "run" (8 distinct creators, rank #144). Last 15m momentum 0.69×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -0.3744460824712509,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.424882458697998
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "run",
    "rank60": 144,
    "share15": 0.0026690391459074734,
    "share60": 0.0038812785388127853,
    "total15": 561,
    "total60": 2189,
    "momentum": 0.6876700858279255,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 272,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924144444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987357407407408
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.424882458697998
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007018569966369352,
  "shareRatio": 1.5175409970735487,
  "totalAfter": 13678,
  "shareBefore": 0.004601226993865031,
  "totalBefore": 10432,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 96,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity