Ledger / Prediction #1710 · narrative · 6H
Will "pixl" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
51 of 2189 launches in the last hour referenced "pixl" (51 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 3.82×.
Made2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 16:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34835815804353376,
"momentum": 1.3405465015284792,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.7488020260288144
},
"features": {
"term": "pixl",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.0898576512455516,
"share60": 0.023515981735159817,
"total15": 561,
"total60": 2189,
"momentum": 3.821131188888505,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 50,
"launches60": 51,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 51
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 272,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9924144444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987357407407408
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7488020260288144
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 23:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.561
Log loss1.382
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.0074048733193890146,
"totalAfter": 13678,
"shareBefore": 0.0048888036809815955,
"totalBefore": 10432,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 51
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 75% that "pixl" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "pixl" (6H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
fe0289267f39ff21b25993c13ff98f831c07de873244b7da97f3a6d6440400c3Previous hash
acde228e47e01e7eb758647cd4fcf58a10e259cb5dfd23e60da763e99df41856