Will "experiment" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 84% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
51 of 2189 launches in the last hour referenced "experiment" (51 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.82×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34835815804353376,
"momentum": 1.3405465015284792,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.844080057636485
},
"features": {
"term": "experiment",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.0898576512455516,
"share60": 0.023515981735159817,
"total15": 561,
"total60": 2189,
"momentum": 3.821131188888505,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 50,
"launches60": 51,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 51
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 272,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9924144444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924144444444445
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.844080057636485
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0013940520446096654,
"shareRatio": 0.06985511298301308,
"totalAfter": 2152,
"shareBefore": 0.02305605786618445,
"totalBefore": 2212,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 3,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 51
}Predicted 84% that "experiment" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.31% → 0.14% (-94%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "experiment" (1H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
— Overconfident: 84% and wrong on "experiment". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
e8f4994187d726083f1128feb362274b97a0fdace768e0517b57c524fc755fd65aa7cf139e25579f6e06f303892b4f6892e7d11201a06ccc11daa9f537edc46a