GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1707 · narrative · 1H

Will "experiment" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 84% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 2189 launches in the last hour referenced "experiment" (51 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.82×.

Made2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 16:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": 1.3405465015284792,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.844080057636485
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "experiment",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0898576512455516,
    "share60": 0.023515981735159817,
    "total15": 561,
    "total60": 2189,
    "momentum": 3.821131188888505,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 50,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 51
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 272,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924144444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924144444444445
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.844080057636485
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 18:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.713
Log loss1.859
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0013940520446096654,
  "shareRatio": 0.06985511298301308,
  "totalAfter": 2152,
  "shareBefore": 0.02305605786618445,
  "totalBefore": 2212,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 84% that "experiment" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.31% → 0.14% (-94%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "experiment" (1H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 84% and wrong on "experiment". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe8f4994187d726083f1128feb362274b97a0fdace768e0517b57c524fc755fd6
Previous hash5aa7cf139e25579f6e06f303892b4f6892e7d11201a06ccc11daa9f537edc46a