Ledger / Prediction #169 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

120 of 2061 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (58 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.87×.

Made2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.47670807455219183,
      "momentum": -0.14003490660189596,
      "diversity": -0.32
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4296383482777549
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.05080213903743316,
    "share60": 0.05843840931134821,
    "total15": 560,
    "total60": 2061,
    "momentum": 0.8693278895866154,
    "diversity": 0.48333333333333334,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 120,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 58
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 359,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996569444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996569444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4296383482777549
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.185

Log loss0.561

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.030196936542669583,
  "shareRatio": 0.5215092408054802,
  "totalAfter": 2285,
  "shareBefore": 0.05808325266214908,
  "totalBefore": 2066,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 120
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.81% → 3.02% (-48%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). diversity contributed -0.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash637e80f7ea7efc5992d216d48370551b01964ad462ce6d095a5d158e2de8c2d1

Previous hashc74a764bdc59d06633fd0377f665fef35724b6d6c79c038543e7620c5ad0db6e