Will "grokbot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 2001 launches in the last hour referenced "grokbot" (15 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": 0.44385499765980696,
      "diversity": -0.5896551724137931
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4804725848437524
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "grokbot",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.04554655870445344,
    "share60": 0.02922077922077922,
    "total15": 493,
    "total60": 2001,
    "momentum": 1.5587044534412955,
    "diversity": 0.25862068965517243,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 295,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954863888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954863888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4804725848437524
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0036101083032490976,
  "shareRatio": 0.1320603418032376,
  "totalAfter": 2216,
  "shareBefore": 0.028798411122144985,
  "totalBefore": 2014,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity