GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1684 · narrative · 24H

Will "wif" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

13 of 1958 launches in the last hour referenced "wif" (11 distinct creators, rank #80). Last 15m momentum 1.04×.

Made2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.14332671675411546,
      "momentum": 0.039947295142377916,
      "diversity": 0.11538461538461536
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.46240342688523156
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wif",
    "rank60": 80,
    "share15": 0.007172131147540984,
    "share60": 0.006891271056661562,
    "total15": 487,
    "total60": 1958,
    "momentum": 1.0407559198542806,
    "diversity": 0.8461538461538461,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 13,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979872222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999161342592593
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.46240342688523156
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.289
Log loss0.771
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.005040387722132471,
  "shareRatio": 1.0379847598279006,
  "totalAfter": 46425,
  "shareBefore": 0.00485512920908379,
  "totalBefore": 44695,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 234,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 217
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "wif" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.50% (+4%). PARTIAL.

— "wif" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash16c914e9458d750cc68907ec415bdbf76be1cb3601466b4a3772cb504648e593
Previous hasha637f72c95bc0cfeece09ef16e92ce268a8d968dcde54c663b593d99042cca9a