Will "elon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1958 launches in the last hour referenced "elon" (15 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 1.82×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": 0.6014166517271233,
      "diversity": -0.4263157894736842
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48491996233450313
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "elon",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.035860655737704916,
    "share60": 0.019652884124553342,
    "total15": 487,
    "total60": 1958,
    "momentum": 1.8247019374068554,
    "diversity": 0.39473684210526316,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979872222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999161342592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48491996233450313
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005901992460958535,
  "shareRatio": 0.5853181421282295,
  "totalAfter": 46425,
  "shareBefore": 0.010090614162658015,
  "totalBefore": 44695,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 274,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 451
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity