Ledger / Prediction #1677 · narrative · 6H
Will "bot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
48 of 1958 launches in the last hour referenced "bot" (31 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.60×.
Made2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3392644647710686,
"momentum": 1.2810711522425946,
"diversity": -0.12499999999999994
},
"rawProbability": 0.6784668413579582
},
"features": {
"term": "bot",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.08913934426229508,
"share60": 0.024757529351710057,
"total15": 487,
"total60": 1958,
"momentum": 3.6004943383471355,
"diversity": 0.6458333333333334,
"launches15": 43,
"launches60": 48,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 31
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 265,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9979872222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996645370370371
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6784668413579582
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 22:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.460
Log loss1.135
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0059619019921477385,
"shareRatio": 0.4749973981547261,
"totalAfter": 13754,
"shareBefore": 0.012575979878432194,
"totalBefore": 9542,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 82,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 120
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 68% that "bot" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.26% → 0.60% (-53%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "bot" (6H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
31f0c17b31b33f7537f630ce756fdf6afdc4cc385e5383b09447088eefc04216Previous hash
f54d1da31e30ca4132549433b381ea6239e8db03810ffaadff409b882396fdf5