GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1677 · narrative · 6H

Will "bot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1958 launches in the last hour referenced "bot" (31 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.60×.

Made2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": 1.2810711522425946,
      "diversity": -0.12499999999999994
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6784668413579582
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bot",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.08913934426229508,
    "share60": 0.024757529351710057,
    "total15": 487,
    "total60": 1958,
    "momentum": 3.6004943383471355,
    "diversity": 0.6458333333333334,
    "launches15": 43,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979872222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996645370370371
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6784668413579582
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 22:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.460
Log loss1.135
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0059619019921477385,
  "shareRatio": 0.4749973981547261,
  "totalAfter": 13754,
  "shareBefore": 0.012575979878432194,
  "totalBefore": 9542,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 82,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 120
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 68% that "bot" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.26% → 0.60% (-53%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "bot" (6H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash31f0c17b31b33f7537f630ce756fdf6afdc4cc385e5383b09447088eefc04216
Previous hashf54d1da31e30ca4132549433b381ea6239e8db03810ffaadff409b882396fdf5