Ledger / Prediction #1674 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

96 of 1958 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (15 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.27×.

Made2026-10-11 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.44323654185506034,
      "momentum": -1.3078668193519554,
      "diversity": -0.7125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13271884365240388
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.01331967213114754,
    "share60": 0.049259826442062275,
    "total15": 487,
    "total60": 1958,
    "momentum": 0.27039624564681897,
    "diversity": 0.15625,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 96,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 265,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979872222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979872222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13271884365240388
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.018

Log loss0.142

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015370705244122965,
  "shareRatio": 0.31793289300857625,
  "totalAfter": 2212,
  "shareBefore": 0.04880528723945094,
  "totalBefore": 1967,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.88% → 1.54% (-69%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed -1.31 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5604e11634ce405c14fc356aa795d52e8a7ee45b392384a87c2c8cf980a31831

Previous hash37a0fe6215ea8205601211bd654c5684ef543d8d378e2f3af416ca4faf4f9f30