Will "pegcoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 2011 launches in the last hour referenced "pegcoin" (20 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -3.0032832161590277,
      "diversity": -0.32857142857142857
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08250154147022273
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pegcoin",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.0010482180293501049,
    "share60": 0.021123260437375745,
    "total15": 476,
    "total60": 2011,
    "momentum": 0.04962387470711556,
    "diversity": 0.47619047619047616,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 228,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988277777777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.08250154147022273
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.007955413570386831,
  "totalAfter": 13551,
  "shareBefore": 0.004583651642475172,
  "totalBefore": 9163,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity