Will "dope" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

132 of 2011 launches in the last hour referenced "dope" (21 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.64×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.49100460152284053,
      "momentum": 0.49436720257470224,
      "diversity": -0.7090909090909091
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49407050174168976
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dope",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.10796645702306079,
    "share60": 0.0658548707753479,
    "total15": 476,
    "total60": 2011,
    "momentum": 1.6394604643803647,
    "diversity": 0.1590909090909091,
    "launches15": 51,
    "launches60": 132,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 228,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929666666666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49407050174168976
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03723932472691162,
  "shareRatio": 0.5700337357459503,
  "totalAfter": 2014,
  "shareBefore": 0.06551724137931035,
  "totalBefore": 2030,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 75,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 133
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity