Ledger / Prediction #1645 · narrative · 6H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
94 of 1807 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (19 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.46×.
Made2026-10-11 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 14:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4400785304753855,
"momentum": 0.3777021361000179,
"diversity": -0.6574468085106383
},
"rawProbability": 0.4531958557173897
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.07625482625482626,
"share60": 0.052267699115044246,
"total15": 517,
"total60": 1807,
"momentum": 1.4589283160711732,
"diversity": 0.20212765957446807,
"launches15": 39,
"launches60": 94,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 184,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9960452777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993408796296296
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4531958557173897
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 21:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.205
Log loss0.604
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.020005949724825226,
"shareRatio": 0.7133687343791741,
"totalAfter": 13446,
"shareBefore": 0.028040579049355977,
"totalBefore": 8773,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 269,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 246
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 45% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.80% → 2.00% (-29%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (6H). diversity contributed -0.66 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
cfb34171b19bb945aca7013aa39c7b5763bbc77ca7a9320be531b83fd0286c4bPrevious hash
1e705cd451eda39695813ea95901015cf5bf8ab1915d48d2963d36698c14e85f