Ledger / Prediction #1643 · narrative · 1H
Will "anti" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
67 of 1807 launches in the last hour referenced "anti" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.47×.
Made2026-10-11 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 14:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3892882060435298,
"momentum": 0.38777778808875935,
"diversity": -0.1656716417910448
},
"rawProbability": 0.5772255701838594
},
"features": {
"term": "anti",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.05501930501930502,
"share60": 0.03733407079646018,
"total15": 517,
"total60": 1807,
"momentum": 1.4737022737022736,
"diversity": 0.6119402985074627,
"launches15": 28,
"launches60": 67,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 41
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 184,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9960452777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960452777777777
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5772255701838594
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.333
Log loss0.861
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.014743263853584139,
"shareRatio": 0.40372628726287263,
"totalAfter": 1967,
"shareBefore": 0.036873968079251515,
"totalBefore": 1817,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 29,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 67
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "anti" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.69% → 1.47% (-60%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "anti" (1H). volume contributed +0.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
9d80554af7a47ef3e39876f47950728b1897b83189fe3ba674ba9daf0603ff8bPrevious hash
aae033a04830fd886b3226dc300c20bc99e9a0566a263a2b33a7ca737614b826