GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1641 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

94 of 1807 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (19 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.46×.

Made2026-10-11 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 14:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4400785304753855,
      "momentum": 0.3777021361000179,
      "diversity": -0.6574468085106383
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4651401126823159
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.07625482625482626,
    "share60": 0.052267699115044246,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 1807,
    "momentum": 1.4589283160711732,
    "diversity": 0.20212765957446807,
    "launches15": 39,
    "launches60": 94,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 184,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960452777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960452777777777
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4651401126823159
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.216
Log loss0.626
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.04880528723945094,
  "shareRatio": 0.9433313975996903,
  "totalAfter": 1967,
  "shareBefore": 0.051733626857457346,
  "totalBefore": 1817,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 96,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 94
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.17% → 4.88% (-6%). PARTIAL.

— "uxento" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb38823377cea07273c43a76533aac90c9f70c46088c260bf61a11b086f2ae41e
Previous hash76680ee9028ed9cdf3e22879ee4d57adbb90d70014f533065fe3f95ec7c0bd34