Ledger / Prediction #1633 · narrative · 24H
Will "human" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
49 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "human" (18 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 3.47×.
Made2026-10-11 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 14:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34235735785147897,
"momentum": 1.2447575888515823,
"diversity": -0.4591836734693877
},
"rawProbability": 0.565610882033301
},
"features": {
"term": "human",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.11511627906976744,
"share60": 0.03315472203616879,
"total15": 429,
"total60": 1492,
"momentum": 3.472093023255814,
"diversity": 0.3673469387755102,
"launches15": 49,
"launches60": 49,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 178,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993580555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999732523148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.565610882033301
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.320
Log loss0.834
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0022684226754173457,
"shareRatio": 0.6786885245901638,
"totalAfter": 45406,
"shareBefore": 0.003347575210324627,
"totalBefore": 45406,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 103,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 152
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 57% that "human" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.23% (-32%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "human" (24H). momentum contributed +1.24 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
df295668732898ed33b8c292481732970f3b8c4d3422173cea6f44d8756231afPrevious hash
e39bd6c200cfbc3e58dcb390c86ac2ef19cdb4a72a2eb4347c578215b61e4f7b