Ledger / Prediction #163 · narrative · 6H

Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1840 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (28 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.95×.

Made2026-10-09 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 19:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 13:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -0.04908260458678155,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5141294045244756
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.01473922902494331,
    "share60": 0.015480717001629549,
    "total15": 440,
    "total60": 1840,
    "momentum": 0.9521024784182679,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 28
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 315,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940847222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990141203703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5141294045244756
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 19:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.236

Log loss0.665

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01860023080578372,
  "shareRatio": 1.3953631237950688,
  "totalAfter": 14731,
  "shareBefore": 0.013299061242735806,
  "totalBefore": 8948,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 274,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 119
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "chain" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.33% → 1.86% (+40%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "chain" (6H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash83c1f8ab0701ddbbf5718ad88f93c84e04581f51474992aa1297efa2bdd9af41

Previous hashc3f60fc7a370f3a0d1288d1a45df7091fe975131b2451a3baf8287a7c542ec2d