GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1624 · token · 6H

Will $SYNC still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 26m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "sync". Creator launched 8 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "3HthVXXyCaMR6PiWwPuC7aLS1KPijdVLfRetUn6MSySc",
    "name": "SYNC",
    "symbol": "SYNC",
    "hotTerms": [
      "sync",
      "step",
      "weights",
      "unchanged",
      "sent",
      "bit"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 26,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 83,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3058.7605761309774,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 8
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 432,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.005
Log loss0.076
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3058.7605761309774,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3058.7605761309774,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6117.521152261955
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $SYNC would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,059, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $SYNC (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha894d6ca0427947e094e328751f7d2909bbf57e35beee888dbed133a77b5bd97
Previous hash4e14c9c7e632ba10b3e19682c8fb6b5aabd39dff9a5d7fb63c456f26c1c2209c