Will "sync" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 1441 launches in the last hour referenced "sync" (8 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -2.0573547542769925,
      "diversity": -0.6866666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18135132268075638
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sync",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.004032258064516129,
    "share60": 0.03155339805825243,
    "total15": 371,
    "total60": 1441,
    "momentum": 0.12779156327543423,
    "diversity": 0.17777777777777778,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 196,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997516898148148
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18135132268075638
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00008907495657595867,
  "shareRatio": 0.09630851127417715,
  "totalAfter": 44906,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010295502836739612,
  "totalBefore": 45651,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity