Ledger / Prediction #1617 · narrative · 24H

Will "dope" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 1441 launches in the last hour referenced "dope" (41 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.72×.

Made2026-10-11 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 0.5420807792557135,
      "diversity": -0.15454545454545454
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5218071381244442
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dope",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0793010752688172,
    "share60": 0.04611650485436893,
    "total15": 371,
    "total60": 1441,
    "momentum": 1.7195812110922468,
    "diversity": 0.6212121212121212,
    "launches15": 29,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 196,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997516898148148
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5218071381244442
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 14:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.229

Log loss0.650

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008996570614171825,
  "shareRatio": 5.832774337255229,
  "totalAfter": 44906,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015333727629186656,
  "totalBefore": 45651,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 404,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "dope" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.90% (+487%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dope" (24H). momentum contributed +0.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7b23651abb86bf8450c94c0b5e6330a94e582fc141ef0b5395c22ab99c73ec2b

Previous hash6a4cd60a194f78873c985fd1733be1e1a7667f7f948d005047dd19edd2bd3e92