Ledger / Prediction #1614 · narrative · 6H
Will "dope" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
66 of 1441 launches in the last hour referenced "dope" (41 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.72×.
Made2026-10-11 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3870325244388488,
"momentum": 0.5420807792557135,
"diversity": -0.15454545454545454
},
"rawProbability": 0.5602551159493652
},
"features": {
"term": "dope",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.0793010752688172,
"share60": 0.04611650485436893,
"total15": 371,
"total60": 1441,
"momentum": 1.7195812110922468,
"diversity": 0.6212121212121212,
"launches15": 29,
"launches60": 66,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 41
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 196,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9940405555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990067592592593
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5602551159493652
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 20:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.193
Log loss0.579
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.025381103458949162,
"shareRatio": 3.0629423295161455,
"totalAfter": 12923,
"shareBefore": 0.008238042542727161,
"totalBefore": 8133,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 328,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 67
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "dope" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.82% → 2.54% (+208%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "dope" (6H). momentum contributed +0.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a1b9e5c1f69fc6c5c80048216c70add7fc50eaf07f9d0742a71ea0f58a28739dPrevious hash
9b9c523ff18a9351348a10c91508f8dce2903e09fbc28f6809e1a11bd0f7240b