Ledger / Prediction #1613 · narrative · 6H

Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

74 of 1441 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (45 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.06×.

Made2026-10-11 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40419407711551036,
      "momentum": 0.7203940100933103,
      "diversity": -0.17027027027027025
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5909810516317665
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.10618279569892473,
    "share60": 0.05166435506241331,
    "total15": 371,
    "total60": 1441,
    "momentum": 2.0552428375550265,
    "diversity": 0.6081081081081081,
    "launches15": 39,
    "launches60": 74,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 45
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 196,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990067592592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5909810516317665
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.167

Log loss0.526

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02383347519925714,
  "shareRatio": 1.4543908090745434,
  "totalAfter": 12923,
  "shareBefore": 0.016353129226607647,
  "totalBefore": 8133,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 308,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 133
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "pepe" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.64% → 2.38% (+46%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pepe" (6H). momentum contributed +0.72 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9b9c523ff18a9351348a10c91508f8dce2903e09fbc28f6809e1a11bd0f7240b

Previous hash42edf79b4178e63d97237b9f855fa57f904acb89939d586416a4e0303f601b2c