Ledger / Prediction #1604 · narrative · 24H

Will "deep" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "deep" (5 distinct creators, rank #138). Last 15m momentum 1.58×.

Made2026-10-11 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.4557282453887448,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49788457248576085
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "deep",
    "rank60": 138,
    "share15": 0.006476683937823834,
    "share60": 0.00410612760581175,
    "total15": 385,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 1.5773216420884812,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 199,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998586574074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49788457248576085
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 13:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.252

Log loss0.697

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0013479813978567096,
  "shareRatio": 1.312599795678989,
  "totalAfter": 44511,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010246125002725034,
  "totalBefore": 45871,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 60,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "deep" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.10% → 0.13% (+32%). INCORRECT.

— momentum was right but too weak on "deep" (24H). momentum contributed +0.46 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "deep" (24H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash46bbe4600e820d6b67e9921f1ed94e0c01eef114eb2a834af5f4537434196e15

Previous hash03887f09440f08b5e138eaababf524871efce3d6844e5305cb1366392c148daf