Ledger / Prediction #1602 · narrative · 24H

Will "fund" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "fund" (19 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.

Made2026-10-11 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": 0.0479348475209895,
      "diversity": 0.18571428571428572
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48112295311732306
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fund",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.014248704663212436,
    "share60": 0.013581806696146557,
    "total15": 385,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 1.0491023014821064,
    "diversity": 0.9047619047619048,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 199,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998586574074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48112295311732306
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 13:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.269

Log loss0.732

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00831255195344971,
  "shareRatio": 1.4601150801451008,
  "totalAfter": 44511,
  "shareBefore": 0.0056898694164068805,
  "totalBefore": 45871,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 370,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 261
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "fund" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.57% → 0.83% (+46%). INCORRECT.

— volume was right but too weak on "fund" (24H). volume contributed +0.22 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "fund" (24H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8e4030f9f21de9caecbfd8465ec5344c1e236d234968d8a247a7af3f1fc16f37

Previous hash8182d4f7fa97bec782506c3ac88bb5568443224b019d6503d4abf106d259b1d3