Ledger / Prediction #1600 · narrative · 6H
Will "tits" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "tits" (3 distinct creators, rank #212). Last 15m momentum 4.10×.
Made2026-10-11 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.4112396904161815,
"diversity": -0.18000000000000002
},
"rawProbability": 0.6368845990531646
},
"features": {
"term": "tits",
"rank60": 212,
"share15": 0.014248704663212436,
"share60": 0.003474415666456096,
"total15": 385,
"total60": 1582,
"momentum": 4.101036269430052,
"diversity": 0.6,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 199,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9966077777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994346296296296
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6368845990531646
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 19:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.406
Log loss1.013
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.03406273258904838,
"totalAfter": 12374,
"shareBefore": 0.001123876123876124,
"totalBefore": 8008,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 9
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 64% that "tits" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "tits" (6H). momentum contributed +1.41 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a760fcd0a4ad2c4486887024ead6954ee87429782b069897ca3034e9b5a80efcPrevious hash
1ca08ca72fbf2b43deb4a61077b61dabf5d3cbc36aa8b463a4ee6d30375b70bb