Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (18 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -0.16115695033757008,
      "diversity": -0.06923076923076925
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42969664801568147
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.014248704663212436,
    "share60": 0.016740366392924828,
    "total15": 385,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 0.8511584710137843,
    "diversity": 0.6923076923076923,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 199,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9966077777777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42969664801568147
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.012709030100334449,
  "shareRatio": 0.7811018060740592,
  "totalAfter": 1495,
  "shareBefore": 0.01638311279143037,
  "totalBefore": 1587,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 19,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity