Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (29 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.80×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": -0.228503571513248,
      "diversity": 0.15454545454545454
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4772912161728252
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.01683937823834197,
    "share60": 0.021162349968414405,
    "total15": 385,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 0.7957234552625474,
    "diversity": 0.8787878787878788,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 199,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9966077777777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4772912161728252
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007357859531772575,
  "shareRatio": 0.36439460451751937,
  "totalAfter": 1495,
  "shareBefore": 0.020793950850661626,
  "totalBefore": 1587,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 33
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity