Will "market" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1840 launches in the last hour referenced "market" (25 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.64×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": -0.4512935607832682,
      "diversity": 0.1344827586206896
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41262309809048076
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "market",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.01020408163265306,
    "share60": 0.016023900054318304,
    "total15": 440,
    "total60": 1840,
    "momentum": 0.6368038740920097,
    "diversity": 0.8620689655172413,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 315,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940847222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9940847222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41262309809048076
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008075370121130552,
  "shareRatio": 0.5196929391198601,
  "totalAfter": 2229,
  "shareBefore": 0.01570113697888468,
  "totalBefore": 1847,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 29
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity