GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #158 · narrative · 1H

Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 1840 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (32 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.48×.

Made2026-10-09 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 13:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": 0.3901262518197445,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6611830972698861
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agent",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.026077097505668934,
    "share60": 0.017653449212384573,
    "total15": 440,
    "total60": 1840,
    "momentum": 1.4771672771672772,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 315,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940847222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9940847222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6611830972698861
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.115
Log loss0.414
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.024674742036787798,
  "shareRatio": 1.333125365568337,
  "totalAfter": 2229,
  "shareBefore": 0.018408229561451002,
  "totalBefore": 1847,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 55,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 66% that "agent" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.84% → 2.47% (+34%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "agent" (1H). momentum contributed +0.39 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf4879b4003ed926642dcb5b49a90712beca969f0e5196e78d4c41b69ff4e7b55
Previous hash8b419e64834971fa99ae80399df6be54e4f62841b904d4a3db375dc5899339d1