Ledger / Prediction #1579 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1662 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (27 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.27×.

Made2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": 0.24196049498308506,
      "diversity": -0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5331074423427214
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.032552083333333336,
    "share60": 0.02555622369212267,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1662,
    "momentum": 1.2737438725490196,
    "diversity": 0.6428571428571429,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 202,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999277777777777
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5331074423427214
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 14:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.218

Log loss0.629

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03586206896551724,
  "shareRatio": 1.417480844853448,
  "totalAfter": 1450,
  "shareBefore": 0.025240384615384616,
  "totalBefore": 1664,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 52,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.52% → 3.59% (+42%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbdba821e84dd701701185b0d3672871df5a8f712f07d0006585293e17fbea143

Previous hash7c70346d188289b7299f9a27eb357fa3ea903aef795e8b0d1cde314248acc921