Will "tiger" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

99 of 1662 launches in the last hour referenced "tiger" (3 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.63×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4478522906550734,
      "momentum": -0.46027306813281765,
      "diversity": -0.8636363636363636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2357618732029012
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tiger",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.037760416666666664,
    "share60": 0.05983162958508719,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1662,
    "momentum": 0.6311112855946398,
    "diversity": 0.030303030303030304,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 99,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 202,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999277777777777
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2357618732029012
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0020689655172413794,
  "shareRatio": 0.04036377615160572,
  "totalAfter": 1450,
  "shareBefore": 0.059495192307692304,
  "totalBefore": 1664,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 99
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity