Ledger / Prediction #1569 · narrative · 24H
Will "god" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
32 of 1409 launches in the last hour referenced "god" (20 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 2.16×.
Made2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27844469855484394,
"momentum": 0.7718117996208576,
"diversity": -0.15
},
"rawProbability": 0.5374617277865061
},
"features": {
"term": "god",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.049872122762148335,
"share60": 0.02304964539007092,
"total15": 390,
"total60": 1409,
"momentum": 2.163682864450128,
"diversity": 0.625,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 32,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 20
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 185,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9951972222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997998842592593
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5374617277865061
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 12:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.214
Log loss0.621
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0016641590297724889,
"shareRatio": 1.4680420361547406,
"totalAfter": 43866,
"shareBefore": 0.0011304839340840905,
"totalBefore": 45998,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 73,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 52
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "god" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.17% (+47%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "god" (24H). momentum contributed +0.77 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
aa0fc4b159d55e0412f7d12e122c4d63b35fd606718c05b936e1056d6ce1dddfPrevious hash
6f4876f6f2954f758037178d0291facdd78bb0b289feef109017177a6926a098