GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1563 · narrative · 1H

Will "god" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 1409 launches in the last hour referenced "god" (20 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 2.16×.

Made2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": 0.7718117996208576,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.645714986773441
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "god",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.049872122762148335,
    "share60": 0.02304964539007092,
    "total15": 390,
    "total60": 1409,
    "momentum": 2.163682864450128,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 185,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9951972222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9951972222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.645714986773441
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.417
Log loss1.038
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002520478890989288,
  "shareRatio": 0.12028647693522311,
  "totalAfter": 1587,
  "shareBefore": 0.02322308233638283,
  "totalBefore": 1421,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 33
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "god" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.32% → 0.25% (-89%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "god" (1H). momentum contributed +0.77 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash59b2c6fa497b291e93b9cad0f053980b824329c0115a0a9e80081037913f4372
Previous hashdcdc2bc9ba3c15bd5119093e0f5763c5fde861f8b84d3b0fb6ef494a017e1d4b