Ledger / Prediction #1562 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
46 of 1409 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (31 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.43×.
Made2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3328805226082492,
"momentum": 0.3609558428778168,
"diversity": -0.09130434782608696
},
"rawProbability": 0.5750613725953765
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.04731457800511509,
"share60": 0.03297872340425532,
"total15": 390,
"total60": 1409,
"momentum": 1.434700107251877,
"diversity": 0.6739130434782609,
"launches15": 18,
"launches60": 46,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 31
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 185,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9951972222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9951972222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5750613725953765
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.331
Log loss0.856
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.01638311279143037,
"shareRatio": 0.5103193304623385,
"totalAfter": 1587,
"shareBefore": 0.03237156931738212,
"totalBefore": 1421,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 26,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 46
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.24% → 1.64% (-49%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.36 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
dcdc2bc9ba3c15bd5119093e0f5763c5fde861f8b84d3b0fb6ef494a017e1d4bPrevious hash
bf5df56ddaf2f7d5ac42f0c3785825ecdc7609b362a3b84d43533aa60e7a1376