GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1562 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 1409 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (31 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.43×.

Made2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": 0.3609558428778168,
      "diversity": -0.09130434782608696
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5750613725953765
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.04731457800511509,
    "share60": 0.03297872340425532,
    "total15": 390,
    "total60": 1409,
    "momentum": 1.434700107251877,
    "diversity": 0.6739130434782609,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 185,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9951972222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9951972222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5750613725953765
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.331
Log loss0.856
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.01638311279143037,
  "shareRatio": 0.5103193304623385,
  "totalAfter": 1587,
  "shareBefore": 0.03237156931738212,
  "totalBefore": 1421,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 26,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 46
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 58% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.24% → 1.64% (-49%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.36 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdcdc2bc9ba3c15bd5119093e0f5763c5fde861f8b84d3b0fb6ef494a017e1d4b
Previous hashbf5df56ddaf2f7d5ac42f0c3785825ecdc7609b362a3b84d43533aa60e7a1376