Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1317 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.95×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.05413447444065754,
      "diversity": 0.2714285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5588580631395363
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03054662379421222,
    "share60": 0.032245827010622154,
    "total15": 310,
    "total60": 1317,
    "momentum": 0.9473047096652166,
    "diversity": 0.9761904761904762,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 174,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982819444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982819444444444
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5588580631395363
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009615384615384616,
  "shareRatio": 0.30848966613672496,
  "totalAfter": 1664,
  "shareBefore": 0.03177004538577912,
  "totalBefore": 1322,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity