Ledger / Prediction #1546 · narrative · 1H

Will "audacity" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 1317 launches in the last hour referenced "audacity" (24 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.14×.

Made2026-10-11 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": -1.9459462781808115,
      "diversity": -0.24545454545454548
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10292046084720226
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "audacity",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.00482315112540193,
    "share60": 0.03376327769347496,
    "total15": 310,
    "total60": 1317,
    "momentum": 0.14285198164673582,
    "diversity": 0.5454545454545454,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 174,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982819444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982819444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10292046084720226
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.011

Log loss0.109

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001201923076923077,
  "shareRatio": 0.04464014576374127,
  "totalAfter": 1664,
  "shareBefore": 0.03328290468986384,
  "totalBefore": 1322,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "audacity" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.33% → 0.12% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "audacity" (1H). momentum contributed -1.95 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9c13c2ff4af659a0c22fb4ddc6dd9fc519ba85bd247ad7c8162fefe9b45d3b30

Previous hash0f287edeaad38f6ea575dee57aabb41fa36af710924b538adb386cf6f63582b1