Will "doobie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1317 launches in the last hour referenced "doobie" (4 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.15×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": 0.1385447984077863,
      "diversity": -0.809433962264151
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.35051845486629835
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doobie",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.04662379421221865,
    "share60": 0.04059180576631259,
    "total15": 310,
    "total60": 1317,
    "momentum": 1.1486011359197044,
    "diversity": 0.07547169811320754,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 174,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982819444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982819444444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.35051845486629835
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01622596153846154,
  "shareRatio": 0.4084364738570346,
  "totalAfter": 1664,
  "shareBefore": 0.040090771558245086,
  "totalBefore": 1322,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 53
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity