Will "12m" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1405 launches in the last hour referenced "12m" (3 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -2.445372943133892,
      "diversity": -0.7615384615384615
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14432705309503308
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "12m",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.0016339869281045752,
    "share60": 0.018847795163584636,
    "total15": 305,
    "total60": 1405,
    "momentum": 0.08669379701566161,
    "diversity": 0.11538461538461539,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997198958333333
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14432705309503308
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.02009378576967101,
  "totalAfter": 43434,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005620892424766517,
  "totalBefore": 46256,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity