Will "doobie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 1405 launches in the last hour referenced "doobie" (4 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.24×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": 0.21119530213317425,
      "diversity": -0.7956521739130435
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3831726612767168
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doobie",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.04084967320261438,
    "share60": 0.033072546230440966,
    "total15": 305,
    "total60": 1405,
    "momentum": 1.235153559631738,
    "diversity": 0.08695652173913043,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988795833333334
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3831726612767168
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0064108519929387715,
  "shareRatio": 0.7654402149091827,
  "totalAfter": 10763,
  "shareBefore": 0.008371973209685728,
  "totalBefore": 7764,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity