Will "dacity" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 79% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
59 of 1405 launches in the last hour referenced "dacity" (34 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 4.44×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3702149297207429,
"momentum": 1.49072760566995,
"diversity": -0.2084745762711864
},
"rawProbability": 0.7945328164328094
},
"features": {
"term": "dacity",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.18790849673202614,
"share60": 0.042318634423897585,
"total15": 305,
"total60": 1405,
"momentum": 4.44032514966771,
"diversity": 0.576271186440678,
"launches15": 57,
"launches60": 59,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 34
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 162,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932775,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932775
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7945328164328094
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.028149190710767064,
"shareRatio": 0.655757949984563,
"totalAfter": 1421,
"shareBefore": 0.0431095406360424,
"totalBefore": 1415,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 40,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 61
}Predicted 79% that "dacity" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.31% → 2.81% (-35%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "dacity" (1H). momentum contributed +1.49 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
— Overconfident: 79% and wrong on "dacity". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
585906f9dc2a5ecf007e0b3efcefffabb05e9872496c78b103d84b02f1a8382cfddcdf8e6bcb914ce5154959a3d6f365d07e4fe9a76a773df129666e22239ec9