Ledger / Prediction #1527 · token · 1H
Will $Bo still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 22m ago. website. No hot term. Creator launched 34 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-11 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 12:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0,
"website": 0.3,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
},
"features": {
"mint": "BvGyojF8U3YvJmXKVHi56Ds7Pvvz4p5R8JN67w7KSv4P",
"name": "Hero Dog Of The Year",
"symbol": "Bo",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 22,
"hasTwitter": false,
"hasWebsite": true,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 0,
"marketCapAtObservation": 4868.0120488163075,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 34
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 457,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 12:00 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.031
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"graduated": false,
"replyCount": 0,
"lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T10:41:49.000Z",
"marketCapUsd": 3052.024147147002,
"athMarketCapUsd": 6677.625632867502,
"tradedInFinal15m": false,
"launchMarketCapUsd": 4868.0120488163075,
"marketCapThresholdUsd": 9736.024097632615
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 3% that $Bo would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,052, no recent trades). CORRECT.
— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Bo (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
bd334364bd66db4f5ed7955fd2cbeb793e344153726f59e93f31d615200a4102Previous hash
a0369cc825dd1f4201ea104a7e7aeb3c991263746d5b7c4c5531bd5e9f198cab