Ledger / Prediction #1523 · narrative · 24H

Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (25 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 2.60×.

Made2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": 0.954245782284123,
      "diversity": 0.1344827586206896
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5929571355267848
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.058208955223880594,
    "share60": 0.022416413373860182,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 2.5967113584619277,
    "diversity": 0.8620689655172413,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998698958333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5929571355267848
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.166

Log loss0.523

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015569529201568554,
  "shareRatio": 1.3389913588141609,
  "totalAfter": 43097,
  "shareBefore": 0.01162564556907319,
  "totalBefore": 46277,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 671,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 538
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "crypto" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 1.16% → 1.56% (+34%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "crypto" (24H). momentum contributed +0.95 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4c6ba935e5139ecd0786831e5a959e3fe307cc83fa7afbb2e78f5a772d9ba2e3

Previous hashe2f4f1043dff4ac6417e25e9fc579d3ddd1ed8b9d1428d9037bd9511291cb1de